EUR/USD: The Euro will decline to 1.20 at the end of 2009, says National Bank Financial

The Euro has appreciated somewhat from 1.2450 low seen in early March to reach levels around 1.3300 on the first days of May, a trend which, according to National Bank Financial, could come to an end as the Dollar might rally across the board during the coming quarters.

According to national Bank Financial, the Federal Reserve, has, through its interventions, “set the U.S. money supply on an uptrend. The same can’t be said for the ECB,” while European money supply is slowing down.

Furthermore, the IMF estimates an exposure of more than $1,000 billion in toxic assets in European Banks, which according to National Bank Financial would urge the ECB to perform unconventional interventions to get European economy back on track.

In regards to the EUR/USD, the NBF estimates the EUR/USD to drop to 1.28 in the Q2 and to 1.25 in the Q3 to reach 1.20 at the end of the month. For the year 2010, the NBF expects the Euro to bottom at 1.15 in the first quarter to pick up to 1.17 in the second quarter.